While the growth in services is generally desirable, the expansion of China s financial services currently the economy s fastest growing service industry is generating serious risks.

India s growth experience suggests that a global service revolution  rapid growth and poverty reduction led by services is now possible.

This stronger growth will benefit emerging markets that export goods and services to the US.

Continuing the shift to a services led growth model is important for a number of reasons.

In fact, in the first half of this year, services accounted for more than half of total economic growth.

from mid 1997 until the end of 2000 , the euro area rate of unemployment fell slightly between January and April 2001 , stabilised between May and August and increased in the latter part of the year , in line with the slowdown in employment growth ( see Chart 19 ) .

The recent inversion of this relationship suggests that the structure of Chinese growth is starting to tilt toward services.

For starters, services are far more labor intensive than the country s traditional growth sectors.

Yet services offer more than just a labor intensive growth path.

0.0 Sources Eurostat and ECB calculations .

Included are agents commissions , insurance brokering and agency services , insurance and pension consultancy services , evaluation and adjustment services , actuarial services , salvage administration services , and regulatory and monitoring services on indemnities and recovery services .

However , some counterbalancing effects were observed within sub sectors the increase in market related services ( which include trade , hotels and restaurants , finance and business services ) in the first two quarters eased in the third quarter , whereas the growth rate in non market related services increased in the third quarter .

These developments first convergence, and now faster services growth stand in sharp contrast with earlier trends.

It is premature, of course, to conclude that a services led transformation to slower growth is now at hand.

India already has a large service sector, which has been a major source of growth.

But a return to high growth in developing countries requires that they resume their push into tradable goods and services.

It started to shift the economy s base from export oriented industries to domestic growth, and from manufacturing to services.

quarterly data ) industry excl . construction construction services 5.0 5.0

Growth in high end services employment is matched by contraction in high employment components of manufacturing supply chains.

First, services growth is beginning to tap a new source of labor income generation, the mainstay of consumer demand.

Services led growth is, in many ways, the antidote to the unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsustainable growth model that former Premier Wen Jiabao s famously criticized in 2007.

For the fourth successive year , net trade in goods and services provided a positive , albeit small , stimulus to growth , underpinned by subdued growth in relative unit labour costs and , as a result , improvements in competitiveness . The rise in domestic demand was linked to an improvement in investment growth and an increase in stockbuilding , while growth in private consumption was unchanged and government consumption was weaker than in 1996 .

ECB Annual Report 2003 Public perception of past inflation , as measured by the European Commission 's qualitative indicator of perceived inflation over the past 12 months , showed a gradual decline in the first half of 2003 .

In other words, a 7 8 growth trajectory in an increasingly services led economy can hit the same labor absorption targets that required 10 growth under China s previous model.

Postal Services ( code 958 ) Includes poste restante services , telegram services and post office counter services , such as sales of stamps , money orders etc. Postal services are often , but not exclusively , supplied by national postal administrations .

Assistance and support services to SMEs with growth prospects are to be provided through the Enterprise Europe Network.

Spike growth

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World trade in goods and services is exhibiting impressive growth figures, and we are pleased about this.

(b) Information, communications and other services, including electronic services and emergency services.

A sectoral analysis shows that productivity growth has declined , especially in market services that make more intensive use of information and communication technologies ( ICT ) , such as those provided by the distribution , financial and business services sectors 5 .

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A rebalanced China can grow more slowly for one simple reason By drawing increased support from services led consumer demand, China s new model will embrace a more labor intensive growth recipe.

With Chinese services requiring about 30 more workers per unit of output than manufacturing and construction, combined, the economy s structural rebalancing is now shifting growth to China s lower productivity services sector.

And, as long as domestic demand remains depressed, structural reforms privatization and liberalization of labor markets and professional services are unlikely to deliver the needed growth.

(c) Greater satisfaction of users with the services provided by the Treaty Section, including electronic services.

India, which has recently experienced Chinese rates of growth, has bucked the trend by relying on software, call centers, and other business services. This has led some to think that India (and perhaps others) can take a different, service led path to growth.

and technical inspection services .

Secondly, improvements in communications increase the use of old and new services and thereby generate essential growth.

In a recent paper, they argue that service industries could serve as a growth escalator, the role traditionally assumed by manufacturing.

Electricity usage is typically one of the most reliable measures of growth but, with the economy shifting toward services, and with many energy intensive industries such as cement and steel production slowing down, it is perfectly possible that slow electricity growth is simply a symptom of rebalancing.

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