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A Year of Divergence

Life's nature is cyclic.

Loop the play list.

The Great Policy Divergence

The logic of intervention goes through cycles.

The Messy Politics of Economic Divergence

Economic historians call this The Great Divergence.

Of course, there is no theoretical limit on divergence.

Such divergence remains in line with business cycle regularities .

There are six which I think explain the Great Divergence.

1762 Joseph Louis Lagrange discovers the divergence theorem.

It can be derived from a Bregman divergence.

But how much of this divergence is already priced in?

And you can see here that there's an exponential Great Divergence.

I think they re two quite different modes divergence and convergence.

First , cyclical conditions are beginning to improve in some countries .

Note

This divergence is as much a political phenomenon as it is an economic and financial one.

But interest rate convergence caused economic divergence.

But one thing is for sure, the Great Divergence is over, folks.

You may think we can explain the Great Divergence in terms of geography.

As with the previous cyclical weakening, the recovery is being led by exports.

The way to render an aggressively counter cyclical fiscal policy feasible is by relying on modern budget rules.

For now, the Chinese economy, having received its cyclical dose of stimulus, should be okay.

In order to conduct a proper assessment , both cyclical and structural developments must be taken into account .

So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation for the Great Divergence.

Divergence in policies and convergence in outcomes is not a realistic expectation.

Holland's problems were mainly structural, although a cyclical economic downturn made matters worse.

For them, debtor and creditor countries increasingly divergent economic objectives are much more meaningful.

And this slide here is the best simplification of the Great Divergence story I can offer you.

And this is part of a really extraordinary phenomenon, and that is the end of the Great Divergence.

Kullback Leibler divergence is a special case of a broader class of divergences called f divergences.

The pressure on policymakers to address the risks of divergence will increase next year.

What accounts for this disconnect within the West over a key regional and global threat?

But before we go through that process of divergence, there is actually quite an important first step.

It was originally introduced by Solomon Kullback and Richard Leibler in 1951 as the directed divergence between two distributions.

I do not think so , but what can policy makers do to take divergence into account ? I will try to give an answer to this question in two steps .

A third piece of the forecast puzzle is the disparity between the behavior of financial markets and that of the real economy.

MILAN Since the global economic crisis, sharp divergences in economic performance have contributed to considerable stock market volatility.

In that case, countercyclical policies both fiscal and monetary could eventually be expected to plug the demand hole and get the economy going again, just as Keynesians argue.

The problem is that the current economic and policy configuration in the developed world entails an unusual amount of divergence.

The divergence between developments in services and goods prices widened further in 2002 .

And you can see here the huge divergence that happens in property ownership between North and South.

Indicators of US balance sheet repair hardly signal the onset of the more vigorous cyclical revival that many believe is at hand.